JPMorgan raises China Q4 and 2022 GDP forecast

JPMorgan raised its forecast for fourth quarter and full year 2022 China GDP on Wednesday, following November data confirming some positive trends from numbers in October.

The bank said it now expected fourth quarter growth to come in at 4.9% quarter-on-quarter compared to a previous forecast of 4.0% though kept its full year 2021 prediction unchanged at 7.8% year-on-year. However, it raised its full year forecast for next year, expecting now 4.9% year-on-year expansion compared to previously 4.7%.

“Economic activity data in November was overall mixed: with a positive surprise on the trade front, disappointment in retail sales, while IP and fixed investment were roughly tracking our forecasts,” Haibin Zhu at JPMorgan said in a note to clients.

“Combining the November activity data with the solid October figures, we have revised up our 4Q GDP growth forecast moderately.”